Can we be optimistic about the future development of Latin American political systems? Why?
If you are interested in the subject (not many are), read my response below.
Introduction
The political systems in Latin America (LA) are weak, inefficient and corrupt. However compared to the situation twenty years ago, LA has seen a dramatic improvement. Will it keep improving? Of course. I think that a more salient question is
How long before the political systems achieve a quality that is acceptable to the majority of the population?
I estimate that it will take LA at least two generations to reach that level. I will justify my answer in the discussion below.
The improvement of society requires three pillars, a good economy, a good educational system, and a good political system. No improvement will occur if one of these pillars is missing or weak. Similarly, any one pillar will not improve without the assistance of the other two. The pillars must grow together. Therefore to predict the improvement of the political system, we need to examine all three. To do this, I used some quantitative measures to compare LA to some developed western nations (DWN) (1),
Economy
I examined three aspects of the economy, GDP, Growth, and Equality. Of the three, equality is the most interdependent with the other two pillars. A more equal distribution of earning enables better education, and a bad political system causes an highly unequal distribution.
- GDP (per Capita) in LA in is less than half of the DWN, but should be enough to provide the basic needs of the population. (2)
- The growth of GDP in LA is 2.3% per year. This is remarkable growth, especially when compared to the almost zero growth of the DWN(2).
- Income equality in LA is lagging, and improving only slowly.
- The ratio of earnings between the richest 10% of the population, and the poorest 10%, is 25:1, while in DWN it is 12:1.
- The Gini Index (3), is another measure of equality. (A lower score indicates a more equal distribution of income.) LA scored 49% compared to DWN at 34%. Aggressive use of taxation plays a major role in making western nations more equitable.
- If we compare the score today, to the Gini index of ten years ago, we can project that it would take LA fifty years to reach the DWN equality level.
Good education requires resources, which should be allocated by the political system, and educated citizens are needed to grow the economy and improve the political system. I examined two aspects of the education system, the number of years in school, and the quality of learning.
- In LA, children study, on average, eight years. In the DWN, the number is twelve years. The missing high school years are crucial in the development of critical thinking, historic knowledge, and political awareness. These are essential skills for improving the political systems.
- The quality of LA education is sorely lagging. A worldwide survey (4) assessed the math proficiency of fifteen-year-old students. 65% of LA students failed the test. In the DWN, only 22% failed. Sadly, there has been no improvement in the current test, over the one administered nine years ago. I think it is safe to assume, that the math results extend to most other subjects.
It is not surprising that there are no simple quantitative measures for a political system. However, in 2012, the World Justice Project conducted a comprehensive survey (4) of the quality of governance in 99 countries, they results were published as a "Rule of Law Index". Out of a maximum score of 100%, LA scored 48%. The DWN scored 73%. Unfortunately, there are no previous surveys, and we cannot calculate the rate of progress in this measure. Let me just say that the low score was measured depite the "...dramatic improvement" that I mentioned earlier.
Conclusion
There is no doubt in my mind that overtime, the political systems in LA will improve. However, the development of such systems is a slower, more complicated process than the development of good economic or educational systems. Therefore, I predict a period of at least forty to fifty years before LA enjoys good political systems. Systems that are dedicated and capable of improving the life of its citizens.
Notes
- For my statistics I used a sample of the nine largest countries in Latin America, which comprise about 90% of the population. For the Developed Western Nations data, I sampled the USA, Canada, and the five largest European countries. The rates of change are annual rates, averaged over ten years. For detailed results, click on the link below.
Latin America Measures - I used the Purchasing-Power-Parity GDP as provided by the OECD and the World Bank.
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality
- http://www.oecd.org/pisa/keyfindings/pisa-2012-results.htm
- http://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index
