Response to "I have hope"

My son Doron, responded to my previous post with a thoughtful rebuttal.  He is more realistic about the prospect of peace.  He believes that for the foreseeable future, a strong Israel is the only available solution.  Below is his letter in full.

By Doron Ohel

I agree that empathy is needed from BOTH sides to reach critical decisions, but according to Dennis Ross, that is not enough.  Action then needs to be taken by leadership to make painful compromises and concessions to reach a mutual livable compromise (not peace, let's not be naive, but a working compromise to better the lives of both peoples).  see article:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2014/0805/What-Israelis-Palestinians-expect-from-the-world-but-not-each-other

Unfortunately, the Palestinian leadership has not budged one millimeter in its negotiation positions in the last 22 years of the Oslo Accords, and if the Gaza conflict says anything, has actually been going backwards.  As far as empathy by the the Palestinian educated elite, the firing and blackballing of an Al-Quds professor who organized a trip to Auschwitz a few months ago is not a good sign of that culture's political maturity in dealing with this conflict.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-lecturer-who-led-auschwitz-trip-quits-after-backlash/

From the Israeli side, education and legislation may be needed to stop the creeping effect of anti-Arab racism by the younger generation.  the revulsion and near-universal condemnation of the lynching of the East Jerusalem teenager's revenge killing points that this is a phenomenon alien to Israeli culture.

Whether the Israeli leadership will take any further risky unilateral steps to forestall a future, long term, hypothetical "black swan" event is extremely unlikely.  With ISIS, an even more bloodthirsty and nihilistic organization than Hamas, knocking on the Eastern front, that makes it even less likely.  It is not in human, nor political nature to do so, especially not in Israel's position with minimal to zero room for cushioning against mistakes, to make such extremely long-term calculations.

As far as hope is concerned?  This is a latest battle that has lasted now for a century. and will probably last for another one.  The side that has the stamina, resilience, and fortitude to go on will ultimately prevail.  Judging Israel's accomplishments from 1914 to 2014 and the Arab side, I would continue to bet on the Israeli side of the ledger for the long-term.

I have hope

I was saddened and frustrated by the current war in Gaza.  Saddened by the suffering on both sides, and  frustrated by my inability to see a way out.   Somehow, the frustration led me to formulate a three-step program, which vaguely describes a path to peace.   I am not a strategist, and do not have the qualifications to propose such a path.  I do not live in Israel, and do not have the moral authority to recommend any path.  I do not claim that the program is original or practical.  Nonetheless, it is presented below.

The first step of the program is the hardest to implement, while the third step is the easiest.  This is a good indication of my lack of expertise in public policy.  However, putting the program on paper, gave me hope that eventually, peace can be achieved.

Step one:  Practice Empathy
Israelis have to realize that they are not confronting "Muslim Fundamentalism",  "Terrorism", nor any other label.   We are fighting other human beings that have the same feelings and aspirations as us.  If we exercise empathy and put ourselves in a Palestinian's shoes, we will discover that our behavior would be the same.  We will realize that the Palestinians consider themselves a nation that lost its dignity and land to an external power.  We will understand that the only way for a young Palestinian man to imagine any kind of acceptable future, is to fight for the elimination of Israel.   This understanding is necessary before any real dialog can take place, a dialog based on real needs, rather than slogans, fear, or prejudice.

It is hard to develop empathy towards your adversary in the middle of a struggle, but it can be done.  I believe that there are enough people in Israel who could accomplish such a feat, and lead the way to the second step.

Step two:  Take Risk
Israel current strategy consists of maintaining deterrence, while waiting for some unknown event that will bring about a radical change in circumstances.  This approach is not a viable long term strategy for two reasons.

1. The huge advantage that Israel has over the Palestinians in resources, quality, and technology is slowly eroding.  This is becoming evident with each encounter.  The Israeli advantage will not disappear in the foreseeable future, but the increasing Palestinian capabilities will exact an increasingly higher price from Israeli society.
2. The unpredictable Black Swan event that Israel is expecting, may not be in its advantage, and could just as likely cause its demise.

Instead of the status-quo, Israel should strive hard to achieve an agreement with the Palestinians.  For the agreement to be acceptable to the other side, it will have to be both risky and generous.  However, I contend that such risk can be contained, and is preferable to the big, long range gamble.  Furthermore, it is appropriate for the stronger, richer side to be more risk-tolerant and generous.

Step three:  Spend Money
Lots of it.  Human nature is such, that no agreement will be stable, unless the Palestinians feel that they have a chance of achieving economic equality with Israeli society.  Israel can provide such a vision, by first demonstrating it in the approach to its Arab citizens.  It can then expand the economic development model to the West Bank, an finally to Gaza.

Comic Relief

"Rega, rega, bachur" (Wait a minute, young man)
I heard this warning, in heavily accented Hebrew, as I was walking hurriedly towards the Israeli consulate in Mexico City.  Hailing me, was a stocky police officer, who looked even stockier due to the heavy body armor he was wearing.
"Le'an?" (where to?) he asked
As he examined my passport, I noticed that he was part of an armed police detail that guarded the tree-lined block.  He asked me, this time in Spanish, to leave my day-pack with him.
"Bitachon meshuga." (Crazy security.)  he  apologized with a smile.
Despite the stress, I could not help but like this jovial, Hebrew-speaking cop.  Eventually, I was let into the embassy complex.

That day, I had to return to the consulate twice more, and on each entry and exit, the cop, who was by now my friend, regaled me with his perfect colloquial Hebrew.  Despite my growing irritation with the bureaucrats inside, he never failed to elicit from me a hearty lough.
For a breakfast spot, he suggested a place that offers "Shakshuka"  (Eggs scrambled with vegetables).
"Bete'avon, achi!'  (Bon apetit, bro!)

As he handed back my day-pack for the last time, we exchanged hearty shoulder pats, and he added,
"Ani Golani' (I am from the Golani Brigade).
The smile did not leave my face, all the way to the subway station.